A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
